The brief, intense armed conflict between India and Pakistan from May 7-10, 2025, characterized by the deployment of drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and long-range air defense systems, offered a glimpse into the complexities of high-tech warfare. Its tactical employment, the intricate nature of its information warfare, and China’s indirect role in the conflict all provide valuable lessons for Taiwan’s defense strategy.

Lai administration has done to date is merely to take the necessary steps to defend the nation against external aggression in the face of an escalating threat. What Taiwan does to contribute to that effort, and to the maintenance of the “status quo,” should not be delegitimized as provocative or as a sign that Taiwan is engaging in something that it is not.

This translates into a nuanced situation for PRC. Subi Reef’s relative distance to Thitu Island means an extra outpost on Sandy Cay becomes a superfluous luxury that needs to be paid with no small amount of political premium for little strategic utility.

Xi’s participation in the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow was more than a gesture of support for Putin; it marked an affirmation of deepening ideological and geopolitical coordination between authoritarian regimes. Beijing’s formal “neutrality” is a mask that conceals its active role in supporting the emerging “axis of revisionism” and in reshaping the global balance of power to its advantage.

Despite Ukraine’s openness to dialogue (including an unconditional 30-day ceasefire), Moscow continued military operations and airstrikes against Ukrainian civilians, using rhetoric about the need to address the “root causes of the conflict.” However, the root cause is clear: the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territories that began in 2014.

The Pahalgam terror attack of April 2025, executed by the Pakistan-backed group The Resistance Front, was not merely another episode in the long-running saga of India-Pakistan hostility. It was a warning flare in a broader, more complex geopolitical theatre that now unmistakably includes China.

On April 22, 2025, a bloody terrorist attack occurred in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India swiftly attributed the attack to militant groups sheltered by Pakistan, escalating tensions and leading to the initiation of Operation Sindoor on May 7. Through swift international intervention, led notably by the United States, a ceasefire agreement was brokered on May 10. However, despite this diplomatic breakthrough, underlying tensions between the two nations persist.

Xi’s strategy is clear — to demonstrate success through the neighborhood community and expand this model to the Global South, culminating in an alternative community with a shared future for mankind. However, this ambition faces serious challenges. While Xi appears to be successfully rallying regional support, his muted response to the Trump contingency — Trump’s tariff shock — reveals China’s vulnerability.

Although the leaders of Iran and the United States prefer a diplomatic solution regarding Iran's nuclear program and despite the progress made in recent weeks in the talks between both sides, the deep distrust between the parties and the gaps in their positions increase the likelihood of an unprecedented conflict between the countries in the coming weeks.