Taiwan Strategists No. 6 (June 2020)

The Taiwan Model of COVID-19 Control and Its Global Implication

     In this on-going global pandemic of COVID-19, Taiwan stands out as a leading country in preventing any outbreak. We delineate four non-pharmaceutical interventions —border control, contact tracing, resource allocation (face masks), and social distancing —of the acclaimed Taiwan model of controlling COVID-19. We explain the socialpolitical background of what makes Taiwan's model possible and successful, stressing the most effective measure of the model is the travel ban on visitors from China at the very early stage, due to hard lessons learned from 2003 SARS outbreak. We also demonstrate collaboration among all layers and all ministries of the government in a democratic country that can effectively bring a disease outbreak under control. We also point out political and technological challenges Taiwan is facing to continue its success in the next wave of the pandemic. We conclude that Taiwan's model has a positive implications for COVID-19 control in the world, and Taiwan has an opportunity to play a meaningful role in global health in the future world order where public health is an important global security issue.

Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Global Health, Taiwan, World Health Organization

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       The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (hereafter “COVID-19”) in China since January 2020 once made China the worst-hit country as its confirmed positives and death tolls were at the top of the world. Nevertheless, the Chinese government's rigorous control has flattened its curve of COVID-19 infection as of May 2020, which facilitates the Chinese government's propaganda in two aspects through the massive publicity it has generated worldwide. On the one hand, the Chinese government makes use of its propaganda to strengthen domestic confidence in its achievement of combatting COVID-19. On the other hand, China also is leveraging its propaganda to argue with the Western countries not only about shifting the blame over the spread of the novel coronavirus, but also for strengthening the superiority of the Chinese model of governance; hence, using propaganda to get itself a bigger say and build a stronger image of China in future international political issues.
     This paper analyzes how the Chinese model of governance is leveraged to address the COVID-19 crisis. For China, propaganda is not only a window display but also is a major part of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s governance, especially on handling the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The CCP shares the same logic on economic development and leveraging its propaganda: the economic development offers materials and resources for propaganda, and both the economic development and propaganda serve as tools for consolidating the CCP's rule in China. The COVID-19 pandemic may have bolstered the Chinese government's  confidence in its governance, which may lead the Chinese government to have more input on its propaganda projects.

Keywords: COVID-19, China Governance, China's Propaganda, PRC Politics, Chinese Communist Party

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Economy and Regional Integration

      The spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China, to East Asia and the major part of global supply value chains, and then to the US and Europe, where the major market demand for finished products, has caused unprecedented and substantial impacts on the global economy. Many international forecasting institutes have aggressively revised downward their forecasts for 2020. As the demand for end products has rapidly decreased, and the oil producing nations have also failed to reach an in-time consensus, continuous tumbling crude oil prices could trigger the fear of deflation and have further the impacts. The economic damage caused by COVID-19 could be unparalleled; recession or even depression is inevitable, meaning that the economic outlook in the near future will be extremely pessimistic.
      Nearly 80% of Taiwan's exports in goods are intermediate products, namely parts and components; Taiwan is deeply integrated into the global supply value chains. For that reason, the global economic growth and Taiwan's growth are highly correlated, making the Taiwanese economy difficult to be totally immune from such unexpected shocks. If such a COVID-19 economic disaster is indeed dreadful, protectionism may arise as a result. Globalization and regional integration processes will be redefined. Therefore, it is expected that a paradigm-shift will take place in the form of restructuring existing supply chains. Nevertheless, the shift may provide Taiwan with certain opportunities in addition to challenges.

Keywords: COVID-19, Global Supply Value Chains, Economic Outlook, Globalization, Regional Integration

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