Superficially, Beijing’s engagement in trilateral talks with Seoul and Tokyo, as opposed to Moscow and Pyongyang, may suggest partnership. However, the direction of China’s relations should be very clear. It increasingly treats North Korea and Russia as partners and South Korea and Japan as adversaries, with even greater regional tensions likely ahead.

On June 21, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, along with the Supreme Court, the Supreme Procuratorate, and the Ministries of State Security, Public Security, and Justice, announced a new legal guideline for the “crime of secession” for Taiwanese independence advocates. The set of rules includes a maximum of death penalty for “diehard” advocates of “Taiwanese independence.”

In legal terms, Resolution 2758 only addresses UN representation of China and does not touch upon the sovereignty of Taiwan. The PRC has exercised its significant political and economic power to wield tremendous influence on various aspects of the UN system. This influence has translated into various measures that prevent Taiwan from having a presence, or participating, in the UN system and elsewhere.

One month after Shangri-La Dialogue, we witness a deterioration of the South China Sea row between China and the Philippines. On June 17, what is arguably the most serious fracas took place between the two rivals around the Second Thomas Shoal.

The PRC’s large-scale military exercises are a wakeup call for the United States and its partners to keep cool heads and reinvest in deterrence not for what the exercises signify today, but for what they portend for tomorrow if we squander their warnings.

China’s reaction to President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration speech has been a calculated effort to portray him as a destabilizing force to both the international community and its domestic audience. This response includes pointed statements from the Taiwan Affairs Office and the initiation of military exercises around Taiwan. In the coming months and years, China is expected to intensify this destabilization campaign.

The victory for the right-wing parties in the European Parliament elections was not as big as expected. However, the center of gravity in the EU Parliament is shifting rightwards. At the same time, many far-right parties have succeeded in national elections and participate in government coalitions. These developments will have consequences for the EU’s foreign policy.

When Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House on April 10, one of the strongest messages that came out of their meeting was the two countries’ resolve to position the U.S.-Japan alliance as the anchor of their shared vision of free and open Indo-Pacific.

Seventy-two hours after Taiwan’s new president, William Lai Ching-te, took office, China launched the Joint Sword 2024A exercises to “punish” Taiwan. China’s lightning operation used Taiwan as an excuse to divert public pressure amid domestic dissatisfaction with the slowing economy in China.