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版本: 1
篇名: Random Thoughts on ` Not So Dire Straits `-An assessment of the `Finlandization of Taiwan` and the U. S. best interest(NEWS LETTER NO.3)
中文關鍵字: 台灣芬蘭化之評估
英文關鍵字: An assessment of the Finlandization of Taiwan
研究人(中文): 劉伯倫
屬性:
出版年月: 201002
英文摘要: Soon after the Korean War broke out, President Harry Truman sent his Seventh Fleet to patrol along the Taiwan Straits. Ever since then, the United States has upheld a policy of keeping peace and stability of the Straits and helped develop the economy of the Republic of China on Taiwan. This policy has paid off well and we now have a new democracy which for quite some years was also admired by many as an economic miracle. When it is not broken, why fix it ?! True, President MA Ying-jeou has adopted, atop of what his predecessors did in the past two decades, certain measures further liberalizing the Cross Straits contacts and exchanges since his inauguration in May, 2008. Some of his initiatives might be seen as carrying certain resemblances or similarities to those adopted by many other small countries towards their big neighbors in general and Finland towards the then U. S. S. R. around 1946 in particular. However, Taipei is doing it under a strong domestic urge, and is mainly aimed for regaining its economic vitality which is desperately needed by its populace; hence, incomparable to the situation Finland and the like faced. Recent moves of Taipei in this regard may be seen also as necessary measures taken to cope with the pressure of globalization and regional integration. While dozens of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have been inked between and among Asian and Pacific countries, the Republic of China on Taiwan is the only one, notwithstanding her strong economic entity status, alongside with North Korea, being denied membership in any FTA in the region. The situation is getting worse and worse for Taiwan especially after her major economic peer South Korea signed a FTA with ironically the United States of America last year and ASEAN + 1 came into force on Jan.1, 2010. Neutrality would lead Taipei to nowhere, since there is not the slightest chance of gaining international endorsement. Before it got anywhere, heightening tension along the Straits and severe Beijing pressure upon major Capitals throughout the world would no doubt be expected. This definitely is not in the interest of the United States, nor that of any other country. So, neutrality or `Finlandization` can obviously not be a viable option for Taiwan. In fact, we don't have any need of having this alternative. It would be also beyond any Taipei leader's wildest thinking to do anything which might be seen as kowtowing to Beijing, simply because that would be suicidal and not in the interest of Taiwan at all. What we need in Taiwan is peace, stability and continued economic development, not anything disrupting the existing order, or depriving us of the opportunity of breaking out from possible economic isolation. As Washington and all others are aware, Beijing has a fundamental policy of further consolidating her one China principle, and she has been leaving no stones unturned to let others know that she is resolutely against `Two Chinas` or `One China, One Taiwan`. Given this fundamental policy of the P. R. C., there is no reason to expect her receptiveness to the idea, not to say the process of `Finlandization of Taiwan`. In other words, `Finlandization of Taiwan` is not feasible at all. It only hampers the carefully nurtured US-China bilateral relationship, impairs their cooperation on global and regional issues; thus putting U. S. security and other major interest at stake. Should the United States pursue a policy leaving Taipei out of its `strategic orbit`, the vital position of the latter would be seriously weakened to the point where there is no other alternative but falling easily into Beijing's coercion and, at most of the time, succumbing to whatever Beijing desires. On the other hand, that shift of policy, if not turning the back, towards a close ally and the first democracy of the Chinese people, might cause alarm to other countries in the region as to the credibility and reliability of the United States. That would absolutely not be to the interest of America, nor advantageous to regional security and stability in Asia Pacific region. These would naturally be of grave concern to America. The best interest of the United States over the Taiwan Straits can always be well served without much cost, as proved in the past half of the century, by simply maintaining her policy of preserving peace and stability of the Straits, and helping build up a strong and democratic Taiwan. Further promoting the cooperation and consolidating the partnership with the P. R. C., is of course a matter of major interest for America. However, it is also to the interest of the U. S. Government to fully implement a domestic law -- the Taiwan Relation Act. After all, the days when Taiwan might be seen as an American strategic liability are gone since Ma Ying-jeou took the presidency. While Taiwan under Ma continues her pursuit of engaging Beijing over economic matters without making political or security concessions, Washington may take a new initiative to maximize her national interest by starting the Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement (TIFA) talks with Taiwan. With that support from Washington, Taipei will have greater confidence in putting her economic and political reform programs on the right track. It is in the American best interest to have a closer cooperation Beijing whilst seeing the continued development of a dynamic democracy with thriving economy in Taiwan! The ice breaking measures taken by both Taipei and Beijing, encouraged by Washington, have all proven to be in the right direction. (Mr. Liu Po-lun is a retired ambassador of the Republic of China )
* 公佈日期: 2010-02-04
文件附件:
NEWS LETTER NO.3-20100204.pdf (191333)
財團法人兩岸交流遠景基金會 Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation 電話: 886-2-2365-4366 傳真: 886-2-2367-6511 意見信箱:info@pf.org.tw